Agriculture: The Next Key to Value Growth

When talking about economic growth, people often like to discuss the theme of "economic growth point," although no one has deliberately explained that "economic growth" here refers to the growth of "quantity" or "value", but from the general The focus of practice and discussion should be the increase in "quantity." However, practice tells us that the ultimate indicator of the performance of the economy is not "quantity" but "value". Otherwise, there is no way to explain why China's economy continues to grow in double digits for 30 years while the stock market is "short bear". long". In fact, as an important "ruler" for measuring China's economic development, although there are still many immature and imperfect places in the A-share market, it basically reflects the trajectory of China's economic development. This has become more and more effective. Recognition by the people of insight, and the stock market reflects precisely the "value" of the economy.

Then, in the Chinese economy that has undergone the financial crisis and has taken the lead from the bottom in the world, where should the next value-added growth point be?

From the current status of industrial and commercial enterprises and related manufacturing industries, it is difficult to achieve a higher level of value growth. The first is the bottleneck problem of new technologies. The so-called "value" is directly related to the two variables of efficiency and risk. Value is always the positive function of the former and the inverse function of the latter. In order to increase efficiency, innovation in production technology is undoubtedly the most important. With the current status of China's manufacturing industry, achieving this goal involves too many problems and is quite difficult. Therefore, in order to improve efficiency in a short period of time, it is only possible to tap potential "Set about. In addition, the reduction of risks is not easy. From the external perspective, the uncertainties in the world economy continue to increase, and the impact on domestic companies is not small. In order to hedge against these uncertainties and not to convert the company into fixed-income securities, adjustment of the industrial structure is indispensable. This will involve many factors such as the property rights system and the distribution of labor, and it will not be a temporary achievement.

The situation in agriculture is very different. Whether it is “enhancing efficiency” or “resisting risk”, there are plenty of articles to do in the short term. In the past ten years, due to the rapid development of urban economy and the continuous renewal of farmers' awareness, the number of migrant workers has doubled, and the original rural “quality labor force” has been seriously inadequate, which not only affected the total output of agriculture, but also affected Output efficiency per unit area. On the other hand, many urban enterprises relying on agricultural products need large amounts of high-quality agricultural products as support, rural issues are not resolved, and the problems of these enterprises are also difficult to solve.

Recently, in the investigation of Heilongjiang rural areas, there is a case that can explain the problem: A food processing company looks at the quality of cabbage produced by a county in the rural area and intends to invest and build factories in the county, but the quality of the cabbage produced by the county is different. Larger, and the output can not meet the company's production capacity requirements, the project was shelved for a long time. After investigation, it was found that the difference in texture was caused by the non-standardization of farming techniques, while the failure of output was caused by the decline in output efficiency caused by the typical lack of quality labor. For such a problem, it is possible to find a solution that is "two birds with one stone".

The first is to establish a high-quality cabbage production base so that farmers can use their land contracting rights as assets to share their shares, and second, to recruit skilled farmers to become agricultural industrial workers. In this way, the agricultural industry is linked to the securitization of agricultural land contracting rights. To solve the problem of increasing agricultural output efficiency, it can also promote the development of urban enterprises. At least logically, this conclusion is true.

Of course, the legalization of the right to use agricultural land is the most difficult issue in this process. The right of existing farmland contracting does not include the right to sublease, so it has brought about little difficulty in the securitization of land rights. However, the country has had successful pilot experiences in this area, such as the land-equity model in Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces. That is to say, such problems can be “evaded” through policy guidance before the legal status of land-use rights is clearly clarified. .

When it comes to industrialization, it not only has the effect of increasing the efficiency of agricultural output, but also helps the agricultural enterprise to resist the value of risk. Agriculture was originally a highly risky industry. In addition to unavoidable natural disasters, price fluctuations are often one of the major problems faced. The industrialization of agriculture with agricultural products as the leader and the processing of agricultural products into the industrial chain will greatly benefit the hedging of price risks. I remember that a few years ago, the media reported that Beijing farmers had started to raise profits from self-employed industry, which aroused my interest. According to my interpretation from the perspective of finance, the farmer used farmhouse tourism to hedge the market price risk of fruit cultivation, and used breadcrumbs to hedge the risks of the farmers' tourism market. If most agricultural companies can hedge such risks, what will happen?

All these are just tradable value enhancements. In fact, for an economy, the efficiency of its value is multi-faceted. Even if it cannot be enhanced through market transactions, it has the same effect on the overall value of the economy. Subtle influence. Still in this rural survey, we found that the waste of rural social resources is also very prominent. For example, as more and more people go to work in cities, there are not so many children actually educated in the countryside, so that there are 7 teachers in the school, but only 3 students have strange things. In addition, agricultural social security (especially the social security of elderly farmers) also faces the problem of decentralization and inefficiency. Therefore, the voice of “town integration” at the township level is higher than we think. From the perspective of improving efficiency, urban-rural integration can relatively centralize scattered farmers, which not only solves the problem of allocation of quality education resources, but also enables rural social security to be concentrated and efficient, and this kind of improvement in the allocation efficiency of social resources. Isn't it an integral part of the efficiency improvement of the entire social economy?

It can be seen that the improvement of the overall value of agriculture is first of all conditional and space-saving. We can not only have the necessary elements for these areas of operational value enhancement but also be easier to implement than industrial industries. Once the value of agriculture can be raised, its utility to the value of the entire economy is by no means smaller than that of other industries, and may even be greater. In this way, vigorously advancing the "three rural" reform will most likely become the most important value growth point for China's economy.