The corn follows the wind commodity market and the weather factor determines the trend in the later period

At present, after the end of the sharp decline and the oscillation trend, the commodity market has come back. Some varieties have already broken through the previous oscillation range and showed a strong desire to rise. We can see from the disk, driven by the strong trend in the surrounding market, the corn with low market activity in the past has also seen a substantial increase in the recent increase in the trend of the situation, the price volatility is greater, the capital inflow is obvious, but the new season corn is coming soon, policy The pressure on the surface has not been reduced, and the rise in the price of corn has obviously followed suit. Although the possible reduction in U.S. corn yields and the recent sudden drop in temperature in the Northeast region may bring certain speculative themes to the market, any speculation is just a hype before the U.S. Department of Agriculture report is released and the early frost weather in the Northeast has not yet appeared. The author believes that the short-term corn market will gain some support under the rising prices of the entire agricultural product market. However, in the absence of early frost weather in the production areas, corn prices are still expected to be difficult to make major breakthroughs.

First, the key growth period of corn, the weather is a decisive factor in corn production and agricultural meteorological conditions during the corn growth period has a very close relationship. Among them, in the corn growth and development period, the most critical weather disasters are three: First, the low temperature damage in the spring; Second, summer drought; Third, the early morning frost. In general, maize grouting and maturing periods, such as low-temperature freezing and early frost weather, have the largest impact on yield and are one of the most important meteorological disasters for corn. In the mature stage of grain filling, when the average temperature on the day falls below 16 degrees, the corn stops filling the soil; when the temperature reaches 3 degrees, it stops growing; when the temperature drops to 2 degrees to minus 4 degrees, the corn plants completely die. At present, the spring sowing of corn in the northeast China and the summer sowing of maize in Huanghuai and other places have entered the stage of grouting maturity. Judging from the current temperature situation in Changchun, Jilin Province, the temperature is still within a normal range in the short term. It is understood that the average minimum temperature in Changchun is 10 degrees over the years, and there has been no extreme cold weather in the short term, but the changes in the weather in the later period still need attention.

Second, the regulatory pressure is not diminished From the short-term market performance point of view, the policy-based auction market pressure has begun to appear, the market's suspicion of government regulation ability has gradually subsided, the sustainability of the State Reserve Corn Auction and the stability of the quantity proved The government's control over the market still exists. It is understood that on September 7, the number of auctions of the National Reserve Bank of corn was 976,000 tons, and the number of auctions of the temporary reserves of corn remained at about 1 million tons, and the number of auctions of inter-provincial corn was 624,000 tons. Secondly, judging from the transactions in recent auctions, the average transaction price of auctions continued to decline since the number of temporary corn auctions on August 24 returned to 1 million tons. At 33.06%, the average transaction price was 1,617 yuan/ton, and both data fell to the lowest point of the year. At the same time, due to the government’s attempt to crack down on speculation in the market, the government continuously revised loopholes in auction policies, including the introduction of restricted auctions, the number of auctions, and the requirements for companies participating in auctions to require the production capacity certificates issued by relevant departments to conduct auctions. More stringent measures have played a good role in combating market speculation. In addition to the above measures, on September 3, the Department of Regulation and Control of the State Grain Administration issued an announcement again, demanding that enterprises participating in the Northeast corn bidding trade fair on August 24th and August 31st this year be required to go through the provincial grain administrative department. The audit confirmed that a statistical account has been established in accordance with the relevant regulations, statistical reports have been submitted regularly, and the relevant provisions of the “Guarantee Rules for Sale of National Temporary Storage of Grain (Northeast Maize Auction)” have been complied with before they can continue to participate in the September 7 and beyond. The Northeast corn bidding trade fair is to further strengthen the government's supervision of the market, improve the government's control over the market, and the auction's transaction status can better show the market's real needs.

Third, the spot market price inflection point in part Although from the current point of view of the cost of imports, affected by the continuous increase in the price of CBOT corn, the cost of imported corn has been higher than the price of Guangdong port domestic corn, but by the favorable spread of the previous period, there is still a period of late Ordered imported corn arrived in Hong Kong. At present, the sales price of high-quality corn in Guangdong ports was 2,070-2,080 yuan/ton, which was a drop of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn for duck materials was 2020-2040 yuan/ton. The current total port inventory is more than 300,000 tons, and the overall supply is adequate. It is understood that before mid-September, there will still be a large amount of corn in the port of Guangdong, and the current demand side procurement attitude is slightly cautious, and the inventory will continue to increase in the later period, when the corn price will continue to weaken, which will affect the northern port of corn Price trend. In addition, due to the fact that the newly produced corn in the main producing areas in North China is going to be harvested and marketed, due to the fear that the overall corn price will be dragged down by the time, most of the grain manufacturers have already made a strong willingness to ship.

Fourth, the outlook outlook From the current trend of commodity prices, multi-species linkage rise again, the basics of a single species is difficult to stop the strong rising trend of the entire commodity market, in the context of the overall rise in the commodity, Dalian corn futures price in the face of new corn Under the pressure of listing, it is still the subject of funds sought after, but from the technical graphics point of view, the main 1105 contract in the short term is still in the 2000 - 2050 yuan / ton oscillation range, the technology has not yet formed a breakthrough, therefore, the operation ideas biased towards oscillation, Investors need to pay attention to the performance of the up and down period prices of the oscillation range. In the later period, changes in the supply and demand pattern of the fundamentals will depend on the weather changes in the production areas before the end of September. In addition, the forthcoming US Department of Agriculture’s report of yield data is also critical. The author believes that if the early frost weather does not appear in the post-production areas, and the possible occurrence of low-temperature weather has no serious impact on the growth of corn, then the domestic corn prices may still fall in stages in a short period of time.